--- title: "Prediction Markets: prices on AI questions, as forecasts" description: "Every open market on AI questions at the cleared venues, grouped by question, with the venue and its settlement type beside each price. A price is what people are willing to bet, not a fact about the event." canonical: https://monitor.paciva.ai/markets source: AI News Monitor publisher: Paciva license: CC BY 4.0 updated: 2026-11-11T12:27:15.376Z --- > Every open market on AI questions at the cleared venues, grouped by question, with the venue and its settlement type beside each price. A price is what people are willing to bet, not a fact about the event. Read on the web: https://monitor.paciva.ai/markets The record behind this page is public and citable. Every figure has a dated row behind it, and the rows are at https://monitor.paciva.ai/api/ledger # Prediction Markets [Provided by a Partnership with Kalshi](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights). Every open market on AI questions at the cleared venues, one card per question, each showing what the market is paying for every outcome right now. A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. Prices as of Nov 11, 7:27 AM EST, refreshed with every poll of the record. Every price on this page is one reading taken at that moment; the Monitor began recording prices on 24 September 2026, so there is no price history to draw yet. ### Where the board sits today How many markets sit in each ten point price band, counted across every open market on the cleared venues. All 251 carry a two sided price, so all of them are here. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. ### What moved since the previous reading - [When will any company achieve AGI?](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q1) 2027 15% to 17% - [When will any company achieve AGI?](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-26nov) 2026 8% to 6% - [Best LLM at the end of the decade?](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-xai) xAI 15% to 16% - [When will any company achieve AGI?](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q2) 2027 24% to 23% - [When will any company achieve AGI?](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q3) 2027 32% to 33% - [When will any company achieve AGI?](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q4) 2028 47% to 48% - [Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-ali) Alibaba 30% to 31% - [Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-amzn) Amazon 15% to 16% - [Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-baid) Baidu 60% to 61% - [Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-byte) ByteDance 25% to 26% Showing 10 of 25 open markets that changed price, out of 251 of 251 open markets the record has now read twice, measured against readings taken Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST. This is the change between two readings and not a price history: a history needs more readings than the record holds. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ### ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxoaianth-40-anth) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 459,317 Priced 2 of 2 Closes Jan 1, 2040 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27jun01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 404,041 Priced 7 of 7 Deadlines Dec 1, 2026 to Jun 1, 2027 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-nytoai-27dec31) "Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?" The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 62,334 Priced 1 of 1 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaianothermillennium-28-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 69,835 Priced 2 of 2 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will any company achieve AGI?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-29) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 262,834 Priced 12 of 12 Deadlines Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2031 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-gsx) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 108,315 Priced 6 of 6 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaikillswitch-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 15,306 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-gsx) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 24,916 Priced 6 of 6 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxustakeover-30) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 10,293 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2028 to Jan 1, 2030 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxoaidamage-28) "Before 2028" The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 9,324 Priced 1 of 1 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaimillennium-28-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 13,518 Priced 4 of 4 Deadlines Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-informati) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 27,073 Priced 12 of 12 Closes Jan 11, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxsupervotedario-29sep26-yes) The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 6,449 Priced 1 of 1 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxllmchess-30) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 10,955 Priced 4 of 4 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2030 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will Anthropic release Claude 6?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxclaude-claude6-27dec31) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 9,941 Priced 5 of 5 Deadlines Dec 31, 2026 to Dec 31, 2027 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-informati) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 27,641 Priced 12 of 12 Closes Jan 11, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaibiosecurity-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 4,278 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicrescind-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 6,163 Priced 4 of 4 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxsupervotealtman-29sep26-yes) The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 3,664 Priced 1 of 1 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Which banks will take Anthropic public?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-ghlx) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 22,150 Priced 15 of 15 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaisafetyaudit-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 5,206 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Which banks will take OpenAI public?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-sfx) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 11,697 Priced 15 of 15 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will the US create a national AI regulator?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusairegulator-28jan01-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 3,193 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaidutyofcare-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 2,442 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaicabinet-29-29jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 2,513 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2029 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxrsiannounce-29-29jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 2,037 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Dec 31, 2026 to Dec 31, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaiincidentreport-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 1,466 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Best LLM at the end of the decade?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-goog) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 5,001 Priced 34 of 34 Closes Dec 31, 2029 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxgovaikillswitch-26sep-28jan01) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 1,142 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllmcountry-29dec31-us) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 2,020 Priced 5 of 5 Closes Dec 31, 2029 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusopenaianth-29jan29-29jan20) One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 613 Priced 3 of 3 Deadlines Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 20, 2029 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will Apple win its case against OpenAI?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxappleopenaicase-29) "Will Apple achieve the superior outcome in its OpenAI case? Before 2029" The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 289 Priced 1 of 1 Closes Jan 1, 2029 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxcasewinmusic-28) "Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217)? Before 2028" The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 240 Priced 1 of 1 Closes Jan 1, 2028 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaigrowthbet-34jan26-b15) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 121 Priced 2 of 2 Closes Jan 26, 2034 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ### ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-meta) One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast. Traded 7 Priced 65 of 65 Closes Dec 31, 2029 to Jan 1, 2030 Settles CFTC regulated exchange ## "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" - **99%** chance ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxoaianth-40-anth) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2040-01-01 · 235,865 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH) - **2%** chance ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxoaianth-40-oai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2040-01-01 · 223,452 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?" - **3%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 142,006 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) - **2%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-26dec01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2026-12-01 · 97,358 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) - **9%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27feb01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-02-01 · 45,060 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) - **34%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27apr01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-04-01 · 36,635 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) - **53%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27jun01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-06-01 · 31,294 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) - **27%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27mar01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-03-01 · 29,156 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) - **44%** chance ["When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? When will OpenAI IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxipoopenai-27may01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-05-01 · 22,532 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPOOPENAI) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?" - **51%** chance ["New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-nytoai-27dec31) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 62,334 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/NYTOAI) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?" - **18%** chance ["Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaianothermillennium-28-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 55,793 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIANOTHERMILLENNIUM) - **61%** chance ["Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaianothermillennium-28-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 14,043 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIANOTHERMILLENNIUM) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will any company achieve AGI?" - **8%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-26q4) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 51,042 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **23%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q2) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 43,874 traded down 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **33%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027? Before Oct 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q3) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-10-01 · 43,526 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **17%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027? Before Apr 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q1) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-04-01 · 36,762 traded up 2 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **48%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-27q4) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 24,912 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **54%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028? Before Apr 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-28q1) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-04-01 · 20,070 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **62%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028? Before Oct 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-28q3) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-10-01 · 13,492 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **78%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031? Before Jan 1, 2031"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-30) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2031-01-01 · 10,192 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **60%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028? Before Jul 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-28q2) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-07-01 · 7,652 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **80%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030? Before Jan 1, 2030"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-29) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 · 5,512 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **76%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029? Before Jan 1, 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-28q4) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-01-01 · 4,178 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) - **6%** chance ["When will any company achieve AGI? Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Dec 1, 2026? Before Dec 1, 2026"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxagico-comp-26nov) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2026-12-01 · 1,624 traded down 2 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAGICO) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?" - **91%** chance ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-gsx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 40,678 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-msx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 26,330 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT) - **3%** chance ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-jpmx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 13,902 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Will Bank of America serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-boax) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 13,081 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-citix) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 7,717 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Will No Listed Underwriter serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-nlox) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 6,608 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?" - **6%** chance ["When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law? Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaikillswitch-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 15,066 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIKILLSWITCH) - **28%** chance ["When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law? Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaikillswitch-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 139 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIKILLSWITCH) - **46%** chance ["When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law? Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaikillswitch-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 101 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIKILLSWITCH) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?" - **68%** chance ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-gsx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 10,489 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAILEADLEFT) - **23%** chance ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-msx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 7,017 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAILEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-jpmx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,169 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAILEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-citix) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,001 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAILEADLEFT) - **3%** chance ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Will No Listed Underwriter serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-nlox) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,729 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAILEADLEFT) - **1%** chance ["Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Will Bank of America serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-boax) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,511 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAILEADLEFT) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?" - **34%** chance ["Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Before 2030"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxustakeover-30) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 · 10,161 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTAKEOVER) - **30%** chance ["Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2029? Before 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxustakeover-30-29) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-01-01 · 80 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTAKEOVER) - **21%** chance ["Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2028? Before 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxustakeover-30-28) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 53 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTAKEOVER) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? Before 2028" - **56%** chance ["Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? Before 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxoaidamage-28) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 9,324 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIDAMAGE) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?" - **30%** chance ["When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027? Before 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaimillennium-28-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 9,180 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIMILLENNIUM) - **24%** chance ["When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026? Before Dec 1, 2026"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaimillennium-28-26dec01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2026-12-01 · 2,457 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIMILLENNIUM) - **52%** chance ["When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaimillennium-28-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 952 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIMILLENNIUM) - **72%** chance ["When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028? Before 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaimillennium-28-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 929 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIMILLENNIUM) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "What sector will Anthropic be assigned to?" - **94%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Information Technology?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-informati) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 8,148 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **6%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Unassigned?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-unassigne) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 3,220 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Real Estate?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-realestat) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,680 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Consumer Discretionary?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-consumerd) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,676 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Health Care?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-healthcar) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,676 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Industrials?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-industria) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,676 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Consumer Staples?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-consumers) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,582 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Energy?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-energy) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,582 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Financials?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-financial) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,582 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Materials?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-materials) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,582 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **1%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Utilities?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-utilities) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,434 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) - **5%** chance ["What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Will Anthropic be assigned to Communication Services?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicsector-xx-communica) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,237 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICSECTOR) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?" - **11%** chance ["Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxsupervotedario-29sep26-yes) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 6,449 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERVOTEDARIO) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?" - **8%** chance ["Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027? Before 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxllmchess-30-27) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 5,527 traded down 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLLMCHESS) - **44%** chance ["Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028? Before 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxllmchess-30-28) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 4,253 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLLMCHESS) - **68%** chance ["Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029? Before 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxllmchess-30-29) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-01-01 · 796 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLLMCHESS) - **76%** chance ["Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030? Before 2030"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxllmchess-30) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 · 379 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLLMCHESS) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?" - **44%** chance ["When will Anthropic release Claude 6? Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027? Before Mar 31, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxclaude-claude6-27mar31) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-03-31 · 5,486 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCLAUDE) - **25%** chance ["When will Anthropic release Claude 6? Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026? Before Dec 31, 2026"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxclaude-claude6-26dec31) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2026-12-31 · 3,284 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCLAUDE) - **70%** chance ["When will Anthropic release Claude 6? Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027? Before Jun 30, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxclaude-claude6-27jun30) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-06-30 · 971 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCLAUDE) - **85%** chance ["When will Anthropic release Claude 6? Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027? Before Sep 30, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxclaude-claude6-27sep30) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-09-30 · 200 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCLAUDE) - **92%** chance ["When will Anthropic release Claude 6? Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027? Before Dec 31, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxclaude-claude6-27dec31) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCLAUDE) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?" - **86%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Information Technology?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-informati) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 4,726 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Real Estate?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-realestat) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 4,097 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **11%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Unassigned?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-unassigne) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 3,168 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Materials?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-materials) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 2,373 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Financials?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-financial) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 2,357 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Health Care?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-healthcar) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 2,259 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Industrials?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-industria) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 2,079 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Consumer Discretionary?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-consumerd) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 2,077 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Energy?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-energy) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,883 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Consumer Staples?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-consumers) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,142 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **4%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Utilities?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-utilities) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 1,036 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) - **6%** chance ["What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Will OpenAI be assigned to Communication Services?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaisector-xx-communica) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-11 · 444 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAISECTOR) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?" - **31%** chance ["When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law? Will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaibiosecurity-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 3,991 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIBIOSECURITY) - **47%** chance ["When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law? Will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaibiosecurity-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 163 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIBIOSECURITY) - **71%** chance ["When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law? Will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaibiosecurity-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 124 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIBIOSECURITY) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?" - **12%** chance ["Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicrescind-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 3,798 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICRESCIND) - **26%** chance ["Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027? Before Apr 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicrescind-26sep-27apr01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-04-01 · 2,331 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICRESCIND) - **41%** chance ["Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicrescind-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 34 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICRESCIND) - **56%** chance ["Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicrescind-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICRESCIND) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?" - **20%** chance ["Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxsupervotealtman-29sep26-yes) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 3,664 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERVOTEALTMAN) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Which banks will take Anthropic public?" - **63%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Stifel Financial take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-sfx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 3,565 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **100%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Rothschild & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-rothx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,802 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **80%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-mzhox) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,542 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **10%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Allen & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-allcx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,459 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **19%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Qatalyst Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-qatax) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,376 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **16%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-cvpxx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,304 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **88%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will William Blair take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-wblax) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,335 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **9%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Evercore take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-evrx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,142 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **100%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Greenhill & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-ghlx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,111 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **100%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will PJT Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-pjtx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,020 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **88%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Raymond James take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-rjfx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 633 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **88%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Piper Sandler take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-piprx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 470 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **100%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Moelis & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-mcx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 218 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **100%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Perella Weinberg Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-pwpx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 131 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) - **15%** chance ["Which banks will take Anthropic public? Will Lazard take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-lazx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 43 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?" - **5%** chance ["When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? Will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaisafetyaudit-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 3,018 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAISAFETYAUDIT) - **44%** chance ["When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? Will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaisafetyaudit-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,731 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAISAFETYAUDIT) - **28%** chance ["When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? Will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaisafetyaudit-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 458 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAISAFETYAUDIT) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Which banks will take OpenAI public?" - **21%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-qatax) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,803 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **40%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-sfx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,642 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **38%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-rjfx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 2,537 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **36%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Needham & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-needx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,295 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **33%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will William Blair take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-wblax) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1,077 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **26%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-allcx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 776 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **12%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-evrx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 168 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **12%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-cvpxx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 122 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **12%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-lazx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 62 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **11%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-pjtx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 44 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **33%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Rothschild & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-rothx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 41 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **12%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-mcx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 35 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **12%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Greenhill & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-ghlx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 34 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **13%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Piper Sandler take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-piprx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 34 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) - **13%** chance ["Which banks will take OpenAI public? Will Perella Weinberg Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-pwpx) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 26 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will the US create a national AI regulator?" - **13%** chance ["Will the US create a national AI regulator? Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusairegulator-28jan01-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 2,603 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSAIREGULATOR) - **68%** chance ["Will the US create a national AI regulator? Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusairegulator-28jan01-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 431 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSAIREGULATOR) - **38%** chance ["Will the US create a national AI regulator? Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusairegulator-28jan01-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 159 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSAIREGULATOR) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?" - **7%** chance ["When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaidutyofcare-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 2,421 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIDUTYOFCARE) - **26%** chance ["When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaidutyofcare-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 18 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIDUTYOFCARE) - **44%** chance ["When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaidutyofcare-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 4 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIDUTYOFCARE) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?" - **7%** chance ["When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official? Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaicabinet-29-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 1,876 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAICABINET) - **20%** chance ["When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official? Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaicabinet-29-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 603 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAICABINET) - **31%** chance ["When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official? Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029? Before Jan 1, 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaicabinet-29-29jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-01-01 · 34 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAICABINET) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?" - **14%** chance ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxrsiannounce-29-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2026-12-31 · 1,819 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRSIANNOUNCE) - **53%** chance ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxrsiannounce-29-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-12-31 · 129 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRSIANNOUNCE) - **73%** chance ["Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029? Before Jan 1, 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxrsiannounce-29-29jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-12-31 · 89 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRSIANNOUNCE) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?" - **9%** chance ["When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law? Will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaiincidentreport-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 1,460 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIINCIDENTREPORT) - **33%** chance ["When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law? Will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaiincidentreport-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 5 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIINCIDENTREPORT) - **55%** chance ["When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law? Will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaiincidentreport-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 1 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIINCIDENTREPORT) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Best LLM at the end of the decade?" - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Essential AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-essn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 1,368 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Amazon"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-amzn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 1,261 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **22%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Google"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-goog) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 852 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **16%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? xAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-xai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 640 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Meta"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-meta) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 462 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **14%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Anthropic"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-anth) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 352 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **13%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? OpenAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-oai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 66 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Alibaba"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-ali) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Arcee AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-arce) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Baidu"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-baid) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? ByteDance"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-byte) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? China Mobile"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-cmob) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Cohere"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-cohr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? DeepSeek"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-dsk) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Huawei"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-hua) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Inception"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-incp) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? InclusionAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-incl) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Institute of Foundation Models"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-ifm) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? LG AI Research"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-lgar) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? LongCat"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-long) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Microsoft"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-msft) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? MiniMax"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-mini) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Mistral"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-mstr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **8%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Moonshot"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-moon) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? NVIDIA"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-nvda) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Prime Intellect"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-prim) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Reflection AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-refl) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Safe Superintelligence"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-ssi) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? StepFun"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-step) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **8%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Tencent"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-tenc) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Thinking Machines"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-tm) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Upstage"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-upst) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **8%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Xiaomi"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-xiao) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) - **8%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Z AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllm-29dec31-zai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLM) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?" - **16%** chance ["When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch? Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027? Before Jul 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxgovaikillswitch-26sep-27jul01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-07-01 · 1,055 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVAIKILLSWITCH) - **29%** chance ["When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch? Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxgovaikillswitch-26sep-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 87 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVAIKILLSWITCH) - **4%** chance ["When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch? Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxgovaikillswitch-26sep-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVAIKILLSWITCH) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?" - **31%** chance ["Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? China"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllmcountry-29dec31-cn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 496 traded up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLMCOUNTRY) - **3%** chance ["Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? South Korea"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllmcountry-29dec31-kr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 400 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLMCOUNTRY) - **3%** chance ["Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? United Arab Emirates"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllmcountry-29dec31-ae) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 400 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLMCOUNTRY) - **4%** chance ["Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? France"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllmcountry-29dec31-fr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 398 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLMCOUNTRY) - **66%** chance ["Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? United States"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxbestllmcountry-29dec31-us) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 · 326 traded down 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBESTLLMCOUNTRY) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?" - **14%** chance ["Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusopenaianth-29jan29-27jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2027-01-01 · 415 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSOPENAIANTH) - **32%** chance ["Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusopenaianth-29jan29-28jan01) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 185 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSOPENAIANTH) - **49%** chance ["Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029? Before Jan 20, 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxusopenaianth-29jan29-29jan20) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-01-20 · 12 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSOPENAIANTH) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? Will Apple achieve the superior outcome in its OpenAI case? Before 2029" - **56%** chance ["Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? Will Apple achieve the superior outcome in its OpenAI case? Before 2029"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxappleopenaicase-29) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-01-01 · 289 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAPPLEOPENAICASE) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic? Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217)? Before 2028" - **60%** chance ["Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic? Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217)? Before 2028"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxcasewinmusic-28) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2028-01-01 · 240 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCASEWINMUSIC) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?" - **15%** chance ["MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%? At least 15%"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaigrowthbet-34jan26-t15) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2034-01-26 · 115 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIGROWTHBET) - **85%** chance ["MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%? Below 15%"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxaigrowthbet-34jan26-b15) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2034-01-26 · 6 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAIGROWTHBET) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights) ## "Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI" - **45%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Z AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-zai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 · 5 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **45%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? MiniMax"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-mini) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 · 2 traded [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Alibaba"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-ali) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Amazon"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-amzn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **15%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Anthropic"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-anth) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Arcee AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-arce) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Baidu"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-baid) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? ByteDance"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-byte) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? China Mobile"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-cmob) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Cohere"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-cohr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? DeepSeek"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-dsk) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Essential AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-essn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **13%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Google"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-goog) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Huawei"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-hua) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Inception"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-incp) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? InclusionAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-incl) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Institute of Foundation Models"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-ifm) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? LG AI Research"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-lgar) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? LongCat"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-long) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Meta"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-meta) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Microsoft"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-msft) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? MiniMax"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-mini) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Mistral"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-mstr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Moonshot"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-moon) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **7%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? NVIDIA"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-nvda) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **15%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? OpenAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-oai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Prime Intellect"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-prim) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Reflection AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-refl) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Safe Superintelligence"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-ssi) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? StepFun"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-step) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Tencent"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-tenc) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Thinking Machines"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-tm) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **4%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Upstage"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-upst) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? xAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-xai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Xiaomi"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-xiao) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **5%** chance ["Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Z AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-29dec31-zai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2029-12-31 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **31%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Alibaba"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-ali) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **16%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Amazon"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-amzn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Arcee AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-arce) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **61%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Baidu"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-baid) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **26%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? ByteDance"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-byte) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? China Mobile"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-cmob) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Cohere"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-cohr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **45%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? DeepSeek"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-dsk) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Essential AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-essn) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **11%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Huawei"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-hua) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Inception"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-incp) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? InclusionAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-incl) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Institute of Foundation Models"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-ifm) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? LG AI Research"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-lgar) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? LongCat"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-long) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **62%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Meta"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-meta) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **16%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Microsoft"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-msft) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **9%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Mistral"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-mstr) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **45%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Moonshot"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-moon) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? NVIDIA"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-nvda) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Prime Intellect"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-prim) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Reflection AI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-refl) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Safe Superintelligence"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-ssi) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? StepFun"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-step) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **56%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Tencent"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-tenc) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Thinking Machines"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-tm) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **6%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Upstage"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-upst) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **41%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-xai) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) - **61%** chance ["Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Xiaomi"](https://monitor.paciva.ai/market-ks-kxtopllmgeneral-30jan01-xiao) Kalshi · CFTC regulated exchange · closes 2030-01-01 up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST [Open on Kalshi ↗](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPLLMGENERAL) **Prediction market data provided by Kalshi.** [Rights](https://monitor.paciva.ai/about#rights)