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Prediction markets · prices, not forecasts

Prediction Markets

Provided by a Partnership with Kalshi. Every open market on AI questions at the cleared venues, one card per question, each showing what the market is paying for every outcome right now. A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event.

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Biggest move since the previous reading
When will any company achieve AGI?
17%now 2027
15%previous reading
+2points
Kalshi · 25 of 251 open markets moved since their previous readingOpen market →
251
open markets
251
with a two sided price
35
questions
Kalshi
cleared venue, by written authorization

Prices as of Nov 11, 7:27 AM EST, refreshed with every poll of the record. Every price on this page is one reading taken at that moment; the Monitor began recording prices on 24 September 2026, so there is no price history to draw yet.

Prediction market · every priced market

Where the board sits today

01020304050607080901001101201301250-103110-201720-301630-401640-501050-601260-70770-80880-90990-100Price today, 0 to 10001020304050607080901001101201301250-10311720-30161640-50101260-707880-909Price today, 0 to 100

How many markets sit in each ten point price band, counted across every open market on the cleared venues. All 251 carry a two sided price, so all of them are here. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Prediction market · change between two readings

What moved since the previous reading

fellrose+2 points-2 points+1 points-1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points+1 pointsfellrose+2 points-2 points+1 points-1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points+1 points
  1. When will any company achieve AGI?202715% to 17%
  2. When will any company achieve AGI?20268% to 6%
  3. Best LLM at the end of the decade?xAI15% to 16%
  4. When will any company achieve AGI?202724% to 23%
  5. When will any company achieve AGI?202732% to 33%
  6. When will any company achieve AGI?202847% to 48%
  7. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAIAlibaba30% to 31%
  8. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAIAmazon15% to 16%
  9. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAIBaidu60% to 61%
  10. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAIByteDance25% to 26%

Showing 10 of 25 open markets that changed price, out of 251 of 251 open markets the record has now read twice, measured against readings taken Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST. This is the change between two readings and not a price history: a history needs more readings than the record holds. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

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35 questions · 251 open markets
Prediction market · 2 outcomes

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

99%chance
Leading outcome
Anthropic
Anthropic
99%
OpenAI
2%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
459,317
Priced
2 of 2
Closes
Jan 1, 2040
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 7 outcomes

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

53%chance
Leading outcome
Jun 1, 2027
050100Dec2026Jan2027Feb2027Mar2027Apr2027May202753%Jun2027050100Dec2026Feb2027Apr202753%Jun2027

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
404,041
Priced
7 of 7
Deadlines
Dec 1, 2026 to Jun 1, 2027
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market · one outcome

New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?

Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?

51%chance
This market
Yes, by Jan 1, 2028
050100

The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
62,334
Priced
1 of 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 2 outcomes

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?

61%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan202761%Jan2028050100Jan202761%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
69,835
Priced
2 of 2
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 12 outcomes

When will any company achieve AGI?

80%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2030
050100Dec2026Jan2027Apr2027Jul2027Oct2027Jan2028Apr2028Jul2028Oct2028Jan202980%Jan2030Jan2031050100Dec2026Jul2027Apr2028Jan202980%Jan2031

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Since the previous readingdown 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 2 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST
Traded
262,834
Priced
12 of 12
Deadlines
Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2031
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 6 outcomes

Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?

91%chance
Leading outcome
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
91%
JPMorgan Chase
3%
Bank of America
1%
Citigroup
1%
Morgan Stanley
1%
No Listed Underwriter
1%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
108,315
Priced
6 of 6
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

46%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202746%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202746%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
15,306
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 6 outcomes

Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?

68%chance
Leading outcome
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
68%
Morgan Stanley
23%
No Listed Underwriter
3%
Bank of America
1%
Citigroup
1%
JPMorgan Chase
1%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
24,916
Priced
6 of 6
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market · 3 outcomes

Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?

34%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2030
050100Jan2028Jan202934%Jan2030050100Jan2028Jan202934%Jan2030

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Since the previous readingup 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST
Traded
10,293
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2028 to Jan 1, 2030
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market · one outcome

Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?

Before 2028

56%chance
This market
Yes, by Jan 1, 2028
050100

The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
9,324
Priced
1 of 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 4 outcomes

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

72%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Dec2026Jan2027Jul202772%Jan2028050100Dec2026Jan2027Jul202772%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
13,518
Priced
4 of 4
Deadlines
Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 12 outcomes

What sector will Anthropic be assigned to?

94%chance
Leading outcome
Information Technology
Information Technology
94%
Unassigned
6%
Communication Services
5%
Consumer Discretionary
1%
Consumer Staples
1%
Energy
1%
Financials
1%
Health Care
1%
Industrials
1%
Materials
1%
Real Estate
1%
Utilities
1%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
27,073
Priced
12 of 12
Closes
Jan 11, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · one outcome

Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?

11%chance
This market
Yes, by Jan 1, 2028
050100

The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
6,449
Priced
1 of 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 4 outcomes

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

76%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2030
050100Jan2027Jan2028Jan202976%Jan2030050100Jan2027Jan2028Jan202976%Jan2030

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Since the previous readingdown 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST
Traded
10,955
Priced
4 of 4
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2030
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

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A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 5 outcomes

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

92%chance
Leading outcome
Dec 31, 2027
050100Dec2026Mar2027Jun2027Sep202792%Dec2027050100Dec2026Mar2027Jun2027Sep202792%Dec2027

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
9,941
Priced
5 of 5
Deadlines
Dec 31, 2026 to Dec 31, 2027
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 12 outcomes

What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?

86%chance
Leading outcome
Information Technology
Information Technology
86%
Unassigned
11%
Communication Services
6%
Consumer Discretionary
4%
Consumer Staples
4%
Energy
4%
Financials
4%
Health Care
4%
Industrials
4%
Materials
4%
Real Estate
4%
Utilities
4%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
27,641
Priced
12 of 12
Closes
Jan 11, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?

71%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202771%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202771%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
4,278
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 4 outcomes

Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?

56%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Apr2027Jul202756%Jan2028050100Jan2027Apr2027Jul202756%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
6,163
Priced
4 of 4
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · one outcome

Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?

20%chance
This market
Yes, by Jan 1, 2028
050100

The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
3,664
Priced
1 of 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 15 outcomes

Which banks will take Anthropic public?

100%chance
Leading outcome
Greenhill & Co
Greenhill & Co
100%
Moelis & Company
100%
Perella Weinberg Partners
100%
PJT Partners
100%
Rothschild & Co
100%
Piper Sandler
88%
Raymond James
88%
William Blair
88%
Mizuho
80%
Stifel Financial
63%
Qatalyst Partners
19%
Centerview
16%
Lazard
15%
Allen & Company
10%
Evercore
9%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
22,150
Priced
15 of 15
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?

44%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202744%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202744%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
5,206
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 15 outcomes

Which banks will take OpenAI public?

40%chance
Leading outcome
Stifel Financial
Stifel Financial
40%
Raymond James
38%
Needham & Company
36%
Rothschild & Co
33%
William Blair
33%
Allen & Company
26%
Qatalyst Partners
21%
Perella Weinberg Partners
13%
Piper Sandler
13%
Centerview
12%
Evercore
12%
Greenhill & Co
12%
Lazard
12%
Moelis & Company
12%
PJT Partners
11%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
11,697
Priced
15 of 15
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

Will the US create a national AI regulator?

68%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202768%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202768%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
3,193
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

44%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202744%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202744%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
2,442
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

31%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2029
050100Jan2027Jan202831%Jan2029050100Jan2027Jan202831%Jan2029

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
2,513
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2029
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

73%chance
Leading outcome
Dec 31, 2028
050100Dec2026Dec202773%Dec2028050100Dec2026Dec202773%Dec2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
2,037
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Dec 31, 2026 to Dec 31, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?

55%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202755%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202755%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
1,466
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 34 outcomes

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

22%chance
Leading outcome
Google
Google
22%
xAI
16%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
13%
Moonshot
8%
Tencent
8%
Xiaomi
8%
Z AI
8%
DeepSeek
7%
Essential AI
7%
MiniMax
7%
Mistral
7%
Alibaba
6%
Amazon
6%
NVIDIA
6%
ByteDance
5%
Huawei
5%
Meta
5%
Microsoft
5%
Arcee AI
4%
Baidu
4%
China Mobile
4%
Cohere
4%
Inception
4%
InclusionAI
4%
Institute of Foundation Models
4%
LG AI Research
4%
LongCat
4%
Prime Intellect
4%
Reflection AI
4%
Safe Superintelligence
4%
StepFun
4%
Thinking Machines
4%
Upstage
4%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Since the previous readingup 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST
Traded
5,001
Priced
34 of 34
Closes
Dec 31, 2029
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

29%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 1, 2028
050100Jan2027Jul202729%Jan2028050100Jan2027Jul202729%Jan2028

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
1,142
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

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A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 5 outcomes

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

66%chance
Leading outcome
United States
United States
66%
China
31%
France
4%
South Korea
3%
United Arab Emirates
3%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Since the previous readingup 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST down 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST
Traded
2,020
Priced
5 of 5
Closes
Dec 31, 2029
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

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A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 3 outcomes

Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?

49%chance
Leading outcome
Jan 20, 2029
050100Jan2027Jan202849%Jan2029050100Jan2027Jan202849%Jan2029

One column per deadline, each the price of that deadline right now, all read at the same moment. Not a price history. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
613
Priced
3 of 3
Deadlines
Jan 1, 2027 to Jan 20, 2029
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · one outcome

Will Apple win its case against OpenAI?

Will Apple achieve the superior outcome in its OpenAI case? Before 2029

56%chance
This market
Yes, by Jan 1, 2029
050100

The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
289
Priced
1 of 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · one outcome

Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic?

Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217)? Before 2028

60%chance
This market
Yes, by Jan 1, 2028
050100

The bar is today's price on this one market, out of 100. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
240
Priced
1 of 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 2 outcomes

MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

85%chance
Leading outcome
below 15%? Below
below 15%? Below
85%
at least 15%? At least
15%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Price historyBegins 24 September 2026. One reading of this question is on file, so there is no line yet.
Traded
121
Priced
2 of 2
Closes
Jan 26, 2034
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

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A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

Prediction market · 65 outcomes

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI

62%chance
Leading outcome
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Meta
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Meta
62%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Baidu
61%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Xiaomi
61%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Tencent
56%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? DeepSeek
45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? MiniMax
45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Moonshot
45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Z AI
45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI
41%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Alibaba
31%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? ByteDance
26%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Amazon
16%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Microsoft
16%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Anthropic
15%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? OpenAI
15%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Google
13%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Huawei
11%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Mistral
9%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Microsoft
7%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Mistral
7%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? NVIDIA
7%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Alibaba
6%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Baidu
6%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? DeepSeek
6%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Thinking Machines
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Arcee AI
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? China Mobile
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Cohere
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Essential AI
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Inception
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? InclusionAI
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Institute of Foundation Models
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? LG AI Research
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? LongCat
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? NVIDIA
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Prime Intellect
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Reflection AI
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Safe Superintelligence
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? StepFun
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Thinking Machines
6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? Upstage
6%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Amazon
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Arcee AI
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? ByteDance
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Huawei
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Meta
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? MiniMax
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Moonshot
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Prime Intellect
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Tencent
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? xAI
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Xiaomi
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Z AI
5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? China Mobile
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Cohere
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Essential AI
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Inception
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? InclusionAI
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Institute of Foundation Models
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? LG AI Research
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? LongCat
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Reflection AI
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Safe Superintelligence
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? StepFun
4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? Best LLM at the end of 2029? Upstage
4%

One bar per outcome, each the price of that outcome right now, all read at the same moment. Prediction market price, not a Monitor forecast.

Since the previous readingup 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST up 1 points since Nov 10, 7:12 AM EST
Traded
7
Priced
65 of 65
Closes
Dec 31, 2029 to Jan 1, 2030
Settles
CFTC regulated exchange

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

Open on Kalshi

A price is what people are willing to bet, which is a fact about the market and not about the event. The Monitor does not forecast and does not take a position.

2 markets

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

7 markets

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

one market

New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

2 markets

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

12 markets

When will any company achieve AGI?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

6 markets

Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

6 markets

Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

one market

Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? Before 2028

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

4 markets

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

12 markets

What sector will Anthropic be assigned to?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

one market

Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

4 markets

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

5 markets

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

12 markets

What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

4 markets

Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

one market

Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?

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15 markets

Which banks will take Anthropic public?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

15 markets

Which banks will take OpenAI public?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

Will the US create a national AI regulator?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

34 markets

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

5 markets

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

3 markets

Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

one market

Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? Will Apple achieve the superior outcome in its OpenAI case? Before 2029

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

one market

Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic? Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217)? Before 2028

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

2 markets

MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights

65 markets

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? xAI

Prediction market data provided by Kalshi. Rights